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Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 7)

Robbed

Heidenheim drew despite more chances

HeidenheimHeidenheim

2–2

Werder BremenWerder Bremen
2.9Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Heidenheim would usually take 2.3 points and Werder Bremen 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Werder Bremen.

Heidenheim −1.3 pts vs chancesWerder Bremen +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Heidenheim had more than twice the shots on target

Heidenheim

Werder Bremen

11

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

4

12

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

3

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Heidenheim and Werder Bremen ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Werder Bremen win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Werder Bremen to win

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Werder Bremen ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 35%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,224 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).

Heidenheim Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Heidenheim 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,488 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Werder Bremen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Werder Bremen 0–1 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 854 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Heidenheim vs Werder Bremen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
HeidenheimHeidenheim2
Werder BremenWerder Bremen2

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

Full Time

130%
X23%
247%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%38%62%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT50%50%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Heidenheim34%66%64%36%
Werder Bremen21%79%49%51%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Heidenheim85%15%95%5%
Werder Bremen74%26%88%12%

1st Half

130%
X35%
235%

1st Score

145%
X5%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

1-1

20%

X-2

13%

X-X

11%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.1%

1-2

9.1%

0-1

7.1%

2-1

7.0%

2-2

6.5%

0-2

6.3%

1-0

5.8%

1-3

5.3%

0-0

4.6%

2-0

3.9%

0-3

3.7%

3-1

3.3%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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