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St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 7)

Fair result
St. PauliSt. Pauli

0–3

TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
0.9Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances St. Pauli would usually take 0.9 points and TSG Hoffenheim 1.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.

St. Pauli −0.9 pts vs chancesTSG Hoffenheim +1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TSG Hoffenheim had more than twice the shots on target

St. Pauli

TSG Hoffenheim

2

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

5

9

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

3

48%

Possession

52%

The match between St. Pauli and TSG Hoffenheim ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an TSG Hoffenheim win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,524 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,206 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 4,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 38%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,008 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

St. Pauli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Pauli 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

TSG Hoffenheim Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
St. PauliSt. Pauli0
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim3

Winner

X2 67%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

133%
X27%
241%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
St. Pauli33%67%66%34%
TSG Hoffenheim27%73%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
St. Pauli87%13%96%4%
TSG Hoffenheim83%17%94%6%

1st Half

130%
X38%
232%

1st Score

145%
X7%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

2-2

21%

X-X

14%

X-2

13%

X-1

12%

2-X

7%

1-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

0-1

9.9%

1-2

8.7%

1-0

8.4%

2-1

7.5%

0-0

7.2%

0-2

7.0%

2-2

5.9%

2-0

4.9%

1-3

3.8%

3-1

3.4%

0-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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