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FC Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 14)
FC Bayern München drew despite more chances
FC Bayern München2–2
FSV Mainz 05On these chances FC Bayern München would usually take 2.8 points and FSV Mainz 05 0.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Bayern München.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →FC Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Bayern München had more than twice the shots on target
FC Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
11
Shots on target
2
9
Big chances
2
7
Corners
0
2
Yellow cards
2
85%
Possession
15%
FC Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
WrongOur track record
In 67 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.1% of the time (bookmakers said 82.8%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 546 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 256 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.0% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 127 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 90–95% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 86.6% of the time (bookmakers said 88.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
FC Bayern München2
FSV Mainz 052Winner
1 81%
BTTS*
No 58%
Correct Score
2-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
FC Bayern München2FSV Mainz 052Winner
1 81%
BTTS*
No 58%
Correct Score
2-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 67% | 33% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9% | 91% | 28% | 72% |
| 70% | 30% | 91% | 9% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 49% | 71% | 29% |
| 99% | 1% | 100% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
58%
X-1
18%
X-X
6%
2-1
4%
2-2
4%
1-X
3%
2-X
3%
X-2
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
13.1%
1-0
11.4%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
7.7%
3-1
6.1%
1-1
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score