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Heidenheim vs FC Köln 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 16)

Fair result
HeidenheimHeidenheim

2–2

FC KölnFC Köln
1.6Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Heidenheim would usually take 1.0 points and FC Köln 1.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Köln.

Heidenheim 0.0 pts vs chancesFC Köln −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Heidenheim vs FC Köln stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

FC Köln had clearly more shots on target

Heidenheim

FC Köln

6

Shots on target

9

3

Big chances

3

5

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

1

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Heidenheim and FC Köln ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an FC Köln win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Union Berlin – FC Köln prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Heidenheim vs FC Köln — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Köln to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,746 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,999 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Köln ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 1,225 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Heidenheim Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Heidenheim 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,704 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

FC Köln Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Köln 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,024 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Heidenheim vs FC Köln 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Heidenheim vs FC Köln. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
HeidenheimHeidenheim2
FC KölnFC Köln2

Winner

X2 73%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

127%
X24%
250%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Heidenheim37%63%69%31%
FC Köln20%80%50%50%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Heidenheim89%11%97%3%
FC Köln76%24%90%10%

1st Half

123%
X38%
239%

1st Score

138%
X5%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

30%

X-2

17%

1-1

14%

X-X

12%

X-1

9%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

4%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.7%

0-1

9.8%

1-2

9.2%

0-2

8.0%

2-1

6.5%

1-0

6.5%

2-2

6.0%

0-0

5.3%

1-3

5.3%

0-3

4.7%

2-0

3.9%

2-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Union Berlin – FC Köln prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

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