FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 16)
FC Union Berlin drew despite more chances
FC Union Berlin2–2
FSV Mainz 05On these chances FC Union Berlin would usually take 1.9 points and FSV Mainz 05 0.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Union Berlin.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
FC Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
5
Shots on target
6
6
Big chances
3
2
Corners
1
2
Yellow cards
0
56%
Possession
44%
FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Union Berlin to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.
Our track record
In 3,109 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,624 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
FC Union Berlin 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,426 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Union Berlin vs FSV Mainz 05. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
FC Union Berlin2
FSV Mainz 052Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
FC Union Berlin2FSV Mainz 052Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
| 38% | 62% | 70% | 30% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
| 89% | 11% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
18%
X-X
16%
X-2
14%
X-1
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
0-2
4.6%
3-1
4.2%
3-0
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score