Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart 1-4 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 16)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–4
VfB StuttgartOn these chances Bayer 04 Leverkusen would usually take 1.5 points and VfB Stuttgart 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
VfB Stuttgart had clearly more shots on target
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
4
Shots on target
7
3
Big chances
4
5
Corners
3
4
Yellow cards
2
58%
Possession
43%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,529 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,404 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,036 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 901 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,177 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time (bookmakers said 35.2%).
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,823 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1
VfB Stuttgart4Winner
1X 64%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1VfB Stuttgart4Winner
1X 64%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 53% | 47% |
| 28% | 72% | 57% | 43% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
24%
X-1
12%
X-X
12%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
5.8%
2-0
5.7%
0-2
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
1-3
4.2%
0-0
4.1%
2-3
3.6%
3-2
3.5%
3-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score