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Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 17)

Fair result
Hamburger SVHamburger SV

0–1

Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen
1.2Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Hamburger SV would usually take 1.1 points and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

Hamburger SV −1.1 pts vs chancesBayer 04 Leverkusen +1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Hamburger SV

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

5

2

Corners

7

0

Yellow cards

2

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Hamburger SV and Bayer 04 Leverkusen ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Bayer 04 Leverkusen win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paderborn – Hamburger SV prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Correct
Our model 39%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,099 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 1,996 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Hamburger SV Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hamburger SV 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
Hamburger SVHamburger SV0
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen1

Winner

12 75%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

136%
X25%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Hamburger SV29%71%61%39%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen27%73%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Hamburger SV84%16%94%6%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen82%18%94%6%

1st Half

129%
X40%
231%

1st Score

144%
X6%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

19%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

1-2

8.7%

0-1

8.3%

2-1

8.2%

1-0

7.8%

2-2

6.0%

0-2

6.0%

0-0

5.7%

2-0

5.3%

1-3

4.1%

3-1

3.8%

0-3

3.1%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paderborn – Hamburger SV prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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