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TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Union Berlin 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)
TSG Hoffenheim3–1
FC Union BerlinOn these chances TSG Hoffenheim would usually take 1.4 points and FC Union Berlin 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Union Berlin stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
TSG Hoffenheim
FC Union Berlin
4
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
2
3
Corners
10
2
Yellow cards
2
61%
Possession
39%
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Union Berlin — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
TSG Hoffenheim to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,609 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,694 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,315 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,387 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 2,000 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,861 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
FC Union Berlin 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Union Berlin 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Union Berlin. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
TSG Hoffenheim3
FC Union Berlin1Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
TSG Hoffenheim3FC Union Berlin1Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 54% | 46% |
| 31% | 69% | 62% | 38% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
| 84% | 16% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
19%
X-X
14%
X-1
12%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-1
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
4.9%
0-0
4.9%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
3-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score