VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)
VfB Stuttgart1–0
SC FreiburgOn these chances VfB Stuttgart would usually take 2.1 points and SC Freiburg 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: VfB Stuttgart.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
VfB Stuttgart had more than twice the shots on target
VfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg
7
Shots on target
2
4
Big chances
2
6
Corners
2
3
Yellow cards
1
69%
Possession
31%
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 5,557 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,206 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,883 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,581 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
SC Freiburg 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
VfB Stuttgart1
SC Freiburg0Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
VfB Stuttgart1SC Freiburg0Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 46% | 54% |
| 40% | 60% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
19%
X-X
12%
2-2
11%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-1
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.3%
1-1
10.3%
1-0
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score