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Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim 2-4 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)

Fair result
HeidenheimHeidenheim

2–4

TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
0.7Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Heidenheim would usually take 0.6 points and TSG Hoffenheim 2.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.

Heidenheim −0.6 pts vs chancesTSG Hoffenheim +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TSG Hoffenheim had more than twice the shots on target

Heidenheim

TSG Hoffenheim

2

Shots on target

7

1

Big chances

4

4

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

0

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Heidenheim and TSG Hoffenheim ended 2-4. Our AI model correctly predicted an TSG Hoffenheim win with 56% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim to win

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,152 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,956 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Heidenheim Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Heidenheim 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 831 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

TSG Hoffenheim Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim 2-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
HeidenheimHeidenheim2
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim4

Winner

2 56%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

0-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

121%
X23%
256%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Heidenheim45%55%76%24%
TSG Hoffenheim19%81%48%52%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Heidenheim92%8%98%2%
TSG Hoffenheim74%26%89%11%

1st Half

122%
X36%
242%

1st Score

133%
X7%
260%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

X-2

16%

1-1

13%

X-X

12%

X-1

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

11.3%

1-1

10.3%

0-2

9.6%

1-2

9.6%

0-0

6.8%

0-3

5.9%

1-0

5.9%

2-1

5.4%

1-3

5.3%

2-2

4.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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