Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 26)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew despite more chances
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–1
FC Bayern MünchenOn these chances Bayer 04 Leverkusen would usually take 2.1 points and FC Bayern München 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Bayern München.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen had clearly more shots on target
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Bayern München
7
Shots on target
5
5
Big chances
2
4
Corners
1
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
2
44%
Possession
56%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,775 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: FC Bayern München ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,196 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,564 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC Bayern München. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1
FC Bayern München1Winner
2 56%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1FC Bayern München1Winner
2 56%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 54% | 46% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 57% | 73% | 27% |
| 18% | 82% | 45% | 55% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
33%
1-1
16%
X-2
15%
X-X
13%
X-1
9%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.1%
0-1
9.1%
0-3
6.0%
2-1
5.7%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.3%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score