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Hamburger SV vs FC Köln 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
Hamburger SVHamburger SV

2–1

FC KölnFC Köln
1.4Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Hamburger SV would usually take 1.2 points and FC Köln 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Köln.

Hamburger SV +1.8 pts vs chancesFC Köln −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hamburger SV vs FC Köln stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Hamburger SV had clearly more shots on target

Hamburger SV

FC Köln

7

Shots on target

5

3

Big chances

3

3

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

3

32%

Possession

68%

The match between Hamburger SV and FC Köln ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Hamburger SV win with 40% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paderborn – Hamburger SV prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Hamburger SV vs FC Köln — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hamburger SV to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: FC Köln to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 1,525 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Hamburger SV Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hamburger SV 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

FC Köln Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Köln 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hamburger SV vs FC Köln 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hamburger SV vs FC Köln. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Bundesliga - Germany
Hamburger SVHamburger SV2
FC KölnFC Köln1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

140%
X26%
234%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Hamburger SV28%72%60%40%
FC Köln32%68%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Hamburger SV84%16%95%5%
FC Köln85%15%95%5%

1st Half

129%
X39%
231%

1st Score

146%
X7%
247%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

20%

X-X

15%

X-2

13%

X-1

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.6%

1-0

9.7%

2-1

8.3%

0-1

8.2%

0-0

7.5%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.7%

2-2

5.8%

0-2

5.1%

3-1

4.0%

1-3

3.3%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paderborn – Hamburger SV prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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