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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Robbed

Borussia Dortmund drew despite more chances

Borussia Dortmund

2–2

Werder Bremen

2.4Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Borussia Dortmund would usually take 2.1 points and Werder Bremen 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Borussia Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund −1.1 pts vs chancesWerder Bremen +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Borussia Dortmund had more than twice the shots on target

Borussia Dortmund

Werder Bremen

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

72%

Possession

28%

The match between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Borussia Dortmund win at 65% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 2.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund to win

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.6% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,958 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 4,238 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Borussia Dortmund Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Werder Bremen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Werder Bremen 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

Borussia Dortmund2

Werder Bremen2

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

Borussia Dortmund2

Werder Bremen2

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

165%

X20%

214%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	23%	77%	45%	55%	56%	44%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	23%	77%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	56%	44%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	40%	60%	67%	33%	85%	15%
	53%	47%	81%	20%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	40%	60%
	53%	47%	81%	20%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	67%	33%	85%	15%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

1st Half

148%

X35%

217%

1st Score

166%

X7%

227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

16%

X-X

11%

2-2

11%

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.5%

2-0

11.8%

2-1

9.0%

1-1

8.2%

3-0

7.6%

0-0

6.6%

3-1

6.1%

2-2

4.2%

1-2

3.9%

0-1

3.7%

3-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen — Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Borussia Dortmund

Werder Bremen

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Borussia Dortmund

2/5

Werder Bremen

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Borussia Dortmund

1/5

Werder Bremen

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Borussia Dortmund

3/5

Werder Bremen

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Borussia Dortmund

3/5

Werder Bremen

1/5

First Half Result

Borussia Dortmund

1/5

Werder Bremen

0/5

Correct Score

Borussia Dortmund

0/5

Werder Bremen

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).