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Elversberg vs FC Augsburg 4-3 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Elversberg won with fewer chances than FC Augsburg
Elversberg4–3
FC AugsburgOn these chances Elversberg would usually take 0.6 points and FC Augsburg 2.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Elversberg.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Elversberg vs FC Augsburg stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Elversberg
FC Augsburg
8
Shots on target
8
5
Big chances
4
4
Corners
12
4
Yellow cards
3
41%
Possession
59%
Elversberg vs FC Augsburg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Elversberg to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,609 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,092 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 942 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 2,000 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Elversberg 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Elversberg 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,861 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
FC Augsburg 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: FC Augsburg 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 638 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Elversberg vs FC Augsburg 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Elversberg vs FC Augsburg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Elversberg4
FC Augsburg3Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Elversberg4FC Augsburg3Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 35% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 51% | 49% |
| 29% | 71% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
20%
X-1
13%
X-X
13%
X-2
10%
2-X
7%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
1-0
6.1%
2-0
5.4%
0-1
5.2%
3-1
4.9%
0-0
4.3%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.9%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
3.5%
2-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Elversberg vs FC Augsburg — Recent Form
Elversberg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. FC Augsburg have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.
Last 5 matches
ElversbergFC AugsburgOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC AugsburgElversbergBoth Teams to Score
FC AugsburgElversbergOver/Under 2.5 Goals
FC AugsburgElversbergOver/Under 3.5 Goals
FC AugsburgElversbergFirst Half Result
FC AugsburgElversbergCorrect Score
FC AugsburgElversberg