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Werder Bremen vs Paderborn

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Robbed

Werder Bremen drew despite more chances

Werder Bremen

2–2

Paderborn

3.0Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Werder Bremen would usually take 2.3 points and Paderborn 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Werder Bremen.

Werder Bremen −1.3 pts vs chancesPaderborn +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Werder Bremen had more than twice the shots on target

Werder Bremen

Paderborn

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Werder Bremen and Paderborn ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Werder Bremen win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Werder Bremen to win

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,746 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 5,211 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,999 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Werder Bremen ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Werder Bremen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Werder Bremen 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Werder Bremen 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,029 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.0% than to our 55–60%.

Paderborn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paderborn 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,684 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Werder Bremen vs Paderborn. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

Werder Bremen2

Paderborn2

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

Werder Bremen2

Paderborn2

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

140%

X25%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	57%	43%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	57%	43%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	58%	42%	81%	19%	94%	6%
	31%	69%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	58%	42%
	31%	69%	62%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	94%	6%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

128%

X42%

230%

1st Score

147%

X6%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

22%

X-X

15%

X-2

13%

X-1

12%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

2-1

8.6%

1-0

8.5%

1-2

7.8%

0-1

7.4%

2-0

6.4%

0-0

6.3%

2-2

6.0%

0-2

5.2%

3-1

4.3%

1-3

3.5%

3-0

3.3%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn — Recent Form

Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Paderborn have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Werder Bremen

Paderborn

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Werder Bremen

1/5

Paderborn

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Werder Bremen

4/5

Paderborn

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Werder Bremen

4/5

Paderborn

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Werder Bremen

1/5

Paderborn

3/5

First Half Result

Werder Bremen

0/5

Paderborn

2/5

Correct Score

Werder Bremen

1/5

Paderborn

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).