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Simba vs ES Tunis 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

CAF Champions League - Season 2025/2026 Group Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)

Fair result
SimbaSimba

2–2

ES TunisES Tunis
0.8Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Simba would usually take 1.0 points and ES Tunis 1.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Simba.

Simba +0.1 pts vs chancesES Tunis −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Simba vs ES Tunis stats: how the match was played

CAF Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

ES Tunis had more than twice the shots on target

Simba

ES Tunis

2

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

3

4

Corners

1

3

Yellow cards

0

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Simba and ES Tunis ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Simba win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Asswehly – ES Tunis prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Simba vs ES Tunis — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · CAF Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Simba to win

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 2,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,557 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 5,206 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 3,633 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 4,186 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Simba Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Simba 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,390 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

ES Tunis Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

ES Tunis 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 80%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,488 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Simba vs ES Tunis 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Simba vs ES Tunis. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
CAF Champions League - Africa
SimbaSimba2
ES TunisES Tunis2

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

153%
X26%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%59%41%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Simba23%77%56%44%
ES Tunis47%53%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Simba81%19%93%7%
ES Tunis95%5%99%1%

1st Half

136%
X46%
217%

1st Score

159%
X9%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

19%

X-X

17%

2-2

10%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.4%

1-1

12.3%

2-0

10.9%

0-0

9.4%

2-1

8.5%

0-1

8.1%

3-0

5.2%

1-2

5.0%

3-1

4.3%

2-2

3.7%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Asswehly – ES Tunis prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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