Watford vs Burnley Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Watford vs Burnley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Championship
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Watford to win
Our track record
In 339 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.7% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 6,058 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,370 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 6,242 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 45.0% of the time (bookmakers said 44.3%).
Our model’s pick
Watford 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Burnley 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Watford vs Burnley — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Watford vs Burnley. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Watford–
Burnley–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS**
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Watford–Burnley–Winner
1X 75%
BTTS**
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
 | 39% | 61% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
X-1
16%
X-X
15%
2-2
14%
X-2
10%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Watford vs Burnley — Recent Form
Watford have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table. Burnley have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 24th in the table.
Last 5 matches
WatfordBurnleyOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
WatfordBurnleyBoth Teams to Score
WatfordBurnleyOver/Under 2.5 Goals
WatfordBurnleyOver/Under 3.5 Goals
WatfordBurnleyFirst Half Result
WatfordBurnleyCorrect Score
WatfordBurnley