Derby County vs Wrexham Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Derby County vs Wrexham — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Championship
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Wrexham to win
Our track record
In 946 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 29.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.1% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our track record
In 2,959 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,789 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 3,846 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.4%).
Our model’s pick
Derby County 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,475 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.3% of the time (bookmakers said 72.2%).
Our model’s pick
Wrexham 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,453 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 64.1%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Derby County vs Wrexham — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Derby County vs Wrexham. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Derby County–
Wrexham–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS**
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Derby County–Wrexham–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS**
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 38% | 62% | 72% | 28% |
 | 30% | 70% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
19%
2-2
17%
X-1
13%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.8%
0-1
12.0%
0-0
9.9%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
4.4%
0-3
3.7%
1-3
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Derby County vs Wrexham — Recent Form
Wrexham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table. Derby County have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 22nd in the table.
Last 5 matches
WrexhamDerby CountyOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Derby CountyWrexhamBoth Teams to Score
Derby CountyWrexhamOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Derby CountyWrexhamOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Derby CountyWrexhamFirst Half Result
Derby CountyWrexhamCorrect Score
Derby CountyWrexham