Leaky
0/9Cardiff City kept no clean sheet in their last 9 (league 24%).
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Unlucky
Cardiff City are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 9 with xG
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Cardiff City 16% to winMiddlesbrough 63%
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City score prediction
Championship
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.1 goals expected
3.1 goals in total: more goals than a typical Championship game (average 2.7).
goals expected
Middlesbrough2.0Cardiff City1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Championship
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Middlesbrough to win
Our model 50%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 5,599 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 5,248 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 2,342 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Middlesbrough ahead at half-time
Our model 39%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 2,009 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Middlesbrough Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 2,779 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Cardiff City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cardiff City 0–1 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Middlesbrough–
Cardiff City–Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Middlesbrough–Cardiff City–Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Full Time
150%
X23%
227%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 54% | 46% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 49% | 51% |
| 36% | 64% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
139%
X37%
224%
1st Score
157%
X5%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
30%
X-1
17%
2-2
14%
X-X
13%
X-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.3%
2-1
10.2%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
5.0%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City: the stats that stand out
Championship
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Cardiff City: leaky and always chasing · Middlesbrough: always on the scoresheet
0/9Always chasing
6/9Cardiff City conceded first in 6 of their last 9 (league 47%).
Always on the scoresheet
1/10Middlesbrough failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 24%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City: attack vs defence
Championship
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Championship teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Middlesbrough: good attack, good defence (1.70 xG, 1.15 xGA a game)
- Cardiff City: good attack, weak defence (1.82 xG, 1.53 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City form and luck check
Championship
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Championship gamesCardiff City are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- MiddlesbroughBookmakers: 63% to win today.−0.6
- Cardiff CityBookmakers: 16% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesWasteful · −6 goals−6.8
Last 5 matches
MiddlesbroughW
D
D
W
W
Cardiff CityL
W
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Middlesbrough 2nd of 24 · Cardiff City 13th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Championship
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Championship gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Middlesbrough and Cardiff City games more often than the Championship average (59%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 53%
Middlesbrough6 of 10
Cardiff City5 of 9
BTTSleague 59%
Middlesbrough7 of 10
Cardiff City7 of 9
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 557 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City corners, cards and goal times
Championship
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameCardiff City: last 9 with these statsGoal times close to the Championship average
Middlesbrough
Cardiff City
5.3
Corners won · league 5.2
7.7
4.8
Corners conceded · league 5.2
5.0
1.1
Cards · league 1.9
2.0
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.2
41%
Goals before half-time · league 47%
55%
24%
Goals after 75' · league 21%
9%
31%
Conceded before half-time · league 47%
71%
8%
Conceded after 75' · league 21%
7%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Middlesbrough3/5
Cardiff City2/5
Both Teams to Score
Middlesbrough2/5
Cardiff City3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Middlesbrough2/5
Cardiff City2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Middlesbrough2/5
Cardiff City4/5
First Half Result
Middlesbrough0/5
Cardiff City2/5
Correct Score
Middlesbrough0/5
Cardiff City1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction