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  4. Granada vs Rayo Vallecano

Granada vs Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Del Rey - Season 2025/2026 16th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
GranadaGranada

1–3

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
1.5Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Granada would usually take 1.4 points and Rayo Vallecano 1.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Rayo Vallecano.

Granada −1.4 pts vs chancesRayo Vallecano +1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Granada vs Rayo Vallecano stats: how the match was played

Copa Del Rey

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Granada had clearly more shots on target

Granada

Rayo Vallecano

6

Shots on target

4

5

Big chances

1

3

Corners

11

0

Yellow cards

3

40%

Possession

60%

The match between Granada and Rayo Vallecano ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Granada win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Recreativo Huelva – Rayo Vallecano prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Granada vs Rayo Vallecano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Del Rey

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Granada to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Rayo Vallecano to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 25%

Our track record

In 1,525 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 74%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Granada Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Granada 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Rayo Vallecano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rayo Vallecano 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Granada vs Rayo Vallecano 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Granada vs Rayo Vallecano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Del Rey - Spain
GranadaGranada1
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano3

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

140%
X26%
234%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Granada29%71%62%38%
Rayo Vallecano32%68%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Granada85%15%95%5%
Rayo Vallecano88%12%96%4%

1st Half

130%
X44%
226%

1st Score

146%
X8%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

19%

X-X

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

14%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

10.0%

0-1

9.4%

2-1

9.3%

1-2

7.6%

0-0

7.6%

2-0

6.3%

0-2

5.4%

2-2

5.1%

3-1

3.9%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Recreativo Huelva – Rayo Vallecano prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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