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Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
Alianza AtléticoAlianza Atlético

2–0

Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso
1.6Chances (xG)0.3

On these chances Alianza Atlético would usually take 2.3 points and Deportivo Garcilaso 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Alianza Atlético.

Alianza Atlético +0.7 pts vs chancesDeportivo Garcilaso −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Alianza Atlético had more than twice the shots on target

Alianza Atlético

Deportivo Garcilaso

7

Shots on target

0

4

Big chances

0

3

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

1

35%

Possession

65%

The match between Alianza Atlético and Deportivo Garcilaso ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Alianza Atlético win with 47% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alianza Atlético to win

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,440 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,055 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Alianza Atlético Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alianza Atlético 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,423 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Deportivo Garcilaso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Sudamericana - South America
Alianza AtléticoAlianza Atlético2
Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso0

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

147%
X28%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%61%39%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Alianza Atlético27%73%62%38%
Deportivo Garcilaso43%57%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Alianza Atlético85%15%95%5%
Deportivo Garcilaso94%6%98%2%

1st Half

134%
X46%
220%

1st Score

155%
X11%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

19%

X-1

18%

2-2

12%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.2%

1-1

12.9%

0-0

10.7%

0-1

9.5%

2-0

9.3%

2-1

8.6%

1-2

5.7%

3-0

4.2%

0-2

4.1%

2-2

3.9%

3-1

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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