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Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta

Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 1st Round (Knock Out)

Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Nacional Asunción created more than twice the chances

Nacional Asunción

Deportivo Recoleta

1.5

Chances (xG)

0.2

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

45%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between Nacional Asunción and Deportivo Recoleta ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Nacional Asunción win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional Asunción to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,292 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Nacional Asunción Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional Asunción 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Deportivo Recoleta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Nacional Asunción vs Deportivo Recoleta. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Nacional Asunción1

Deportivo Recoleta1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Nacional Asunción1

Deportivo Recoleta1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

148%

X26%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%	64%	36%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%	81%	19%	93%	7%
	40%	60%	74%	26%	91%	9%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%
	40%	60%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	93%	7%
	91%	9%	97%	3%

1st Half

134%

X45%

221%

1st Score

155%

X8%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-X

19%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

1-0

11.7%

2-1

9.2%

2-0

8.5%

0-0

8.2%

0-1

8.0%

1-2

6.3%

2-2

4.7%

3-0

4.5%

3-1

4.5%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score