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Cienciano vs Melgar 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 1st Round (Knock Out)
Cienciano vs Melgar stats: how the match was played
Copa Sudamericana
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Cienciano created more than twice the chances
Cienciano
Melgar
1.6
Chances (xG)
0.6
3
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
0
6
Corners
3
3
Yellow cards
2
49%
Possession
51%
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Cienciano vs Melgar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Copa Sudamericana
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Cienciano to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,955 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Cienciano ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Cienciano 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,796 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Melgar 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Cienciano vs Melgar 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cienciano vs Melgar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Cienciano1
Melgar1Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Cienciano1Melgar1Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20% | 80% | 50% | 50% |
 | 39% | 61% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
34%
X-1
18%
X-X
14%
2-2
12%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
10.1%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score