Home
Leagues
Copa Sudamericana
Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta

Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

Boca Juniors

3–1

Deportivo Recoleta

3.4Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Boca Juniors would usually take 2.7 points and Deportivo Recoleta 0.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Boca Juniors.

Boca Juniors +0.3 pts vs chancesDeportivo Recoleta −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Boca Juniors had more than twice the shots on target

Boca Juniors

Deportivo Recoleta

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

77%

Possession

23%

The match between Boca Juniors and Deportivo Recoleta ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Boca Juniors win with 61% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors to win

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,065 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 804 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 79%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Boca Juniors Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Boca Juniors 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Deportivo Recoleta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 86%Bookmakers 91%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Boca Juniors3

Deportivo Recoleta1

Winner

1 61%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Boca Juniors3

Deportivo Recoleta1

Winner

1 61%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

161%

X24%

215%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%	69%	31%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	19%	81%	51%	49%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	55%	45%	86%	14%	97%	3%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	19%	81%	51%	49%
	55%	45%	86%	14%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	97%	3%	99%	1%

1st Half

146%

X40%

215%

1st Score

165%

X10%

226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

41%

X-1

20%

X-X

14%

2-2

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

15.9%

2-0

12.5%

1-1

11.1%

0-0

9.7%

2-1

9.4%

3-0

7.3%

0-1

6.3%

3-1

4.9%

1-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score