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Lazio vs Atalanta

Lazio vs Atalanta 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Coppa Italia - Season 2025/2026 Semi-finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

Lazio

2–2

Atalanta

0.6Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Lazio would usually take 1.1 points and Atalanta 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atalanta.

Lazio −0.1 pts vs chancesAtalanta −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lazio vs Atalanta stats: how the match was played

Coppa Italia

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Lazio

Atalanta

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Lazio and Atalanta ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Atalanta win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

Lazio vs Atalanta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coppa Italia

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 3,612 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,164 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 3,661 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 6,677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Lazio Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lazio 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,585 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Atalanta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,661 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lazio vs Atalanta 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lazio vs Atalanta. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coppa Italia - Italy

Lazio2

Atalanta2

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Coppa Italia - Italy

Lazio2

Atalanta2

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

129%

X27%

244%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	38%	62%	72%	28%	91%	9%	97%	3%
	27%	73%	60%	40%	84%	16%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	38%	62%	72%	28%
	27%	73%	60%	40%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	97%	3%
	84%	16%	95%	5%

1st Half

125%

X44%

231%

1st Score

140%

X9%

252%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

X-X

17%

X-2

16%

1-1

15%

X-1

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

0-1

11.9%

1-0

8.9%

1-2

8.9%

0-0

8.6%

0-2

8.1%

2-1

6.8%

2-0

4.9%

2-2

4.8%

1-3

3.9%

0-3

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score