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  4. Orléans vs Monaco

Orléans vs Monaco 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Coupe de France - Season 2025/2026 16th Finals (Knock Out)

Smash-and-grab

Monaco won with less than half the chances

OrléansOrléans

1–3

MonacoMonaco
2.0Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Orléans would usually take 2.3 points and Monaco 0.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Monaco.

Orléans −2.3 pts vs chancesMonaco +2.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Orléans vs Monaco stats: how the match was played

Coupe de France

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Orléans had clearly more shots on target

Orléans

Monaco

7

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

3

13

Corners

1

1

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Orléans and Monaco ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Monaco win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Orléans vs Monaco — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coupe de France

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monaco to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Monaco ahead at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Orléans Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orléans 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Monaco Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monaco 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Orléans vs Monaco 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Orléans vs Monaco. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Coupe de France - France
OrléansOrléans1
MonacoMonaco3

Winner

X2 72%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

128%
X23%
249%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%40%60%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT51%49%76%24%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Orléans36%64%67%34%
Monaco21%79%49%51%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Orléans87%13%95%5%
Monaco74%26%88%12%

1st Half

123%
X39%
238%

1st Score

138%
X5%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

1-1

16%

X-2

16%

X-X

15%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

1-2

8.7%

0-1

8.4%

0-2

7.2%

2-1

6.7%

2-2

6.4%

1-0

5.8%

1-3

5.6%

0-0

4.8%

0-3

4.1%

2-0

3.8%

2-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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