Nantes vs Nice 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Coupe de France - Season 2025/2026 16th Finals (Knock Out)

Nantes vs Nice stats: how the match was played

Coupe de France

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Nantes created clearly more chances

Nantes

Nice

1.5

Chances (xG)

0.9

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

52%

Possession

48%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between Nantes and Nice ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Nice win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Nantes vs Nice — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coupe de France

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nice to win

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Nantes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nantes 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,671 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Nice Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nice 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Nantes vs Nice 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Nantes vs Nice. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coupe de France - France

Nantes1

Nice1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Coupe de France - France

Nantes1

Nice1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

130%

X25%

245%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	49%	51%	61%	39%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	35%	65%	69%	31%	89%	12%	97%	3%
	25%	75%	57%	43%	80%	20%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	35%	65%	69%	31%
	25%	75%	57%	43%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	12%	97%	3%
	80%	20%	93%	7%

1st Half

127%

X42%

232%

1st Score

144%

X6%

250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

1-1

17%

X-2

17%

X-X

15%

X-1

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

0-1

9.9%

1-2

8.8%

1-0

8.3%

0-2

7.5%

2-1

7.1%

0-0

6.3%

2-2

5.5%

2-0

4.7%

1-3

4.4%

0-3

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score