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US Chantilly vs Rennes

US Chantilly vs Rennes 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Coupe de France - Season 2025/2026 16th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

US Chantilly

1–3

Rennes

0.4Chances (xG)3.6

On these chances US Chantilly would usually take 0.1 points and Rennes 2.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Rennes.

US Chantilly −0.1 pts vs chancesRennes +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

US Chantilly vs Rennes stats: how the match was played

Coupe de France

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rennes had more than twice the shots on target

US Chantilly

Rennes

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

31%

Possession

69%

The match between US Chantilly and Rennes ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Rennes win with 74% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

US Chantilly vs Rennes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coupe de France

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes to win

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,039 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 901 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,222 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.3% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

US Chantilly Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

US Chantilly 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 87%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 126 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.9% of the time (bookmakers said 84.8%).

Rennes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,210 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

US Chantilly vs Rennes 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for US Chantilly vs Rennes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coupe de France - France

US Chantilly1

Rennes3

Winner

2 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

0-2 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

· FT

Coupe de France - France

US Chantilly1

Rennes3

Winner

2 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

0-2 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 50%

Full Time

110%

X15%

274%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	39%	61%	50%	50%	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	50%	50%	70%	30%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	61%	39%	87%	13%	97%	3%	99%	1%
	11%	89%	31%	69%	55%	45%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	61%	39%	87%	13%
	11%	89%	31%	69%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	97%	3%	99%	1%
	55%	45%	75%	25%

1st Half

114%

X33%

253%

1st Score

124%

X4%

271%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

49%

X-2

19%

X-X

10%

1-1

X-1

1-X

1-2

2-X

2-1

Correct Score

0-2

12.0%

0-1

9.4%

0-3

9.2%

1-2

8.7%

1-1

7.5%

1-3

6.8%

0-0

4.5%

1-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score