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Olympique Marseille vs Rennes

Olympique Marseille vs Rennes 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Coupe de France - Season 2025/2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

Olympique Marseille

3–0

Rennes

1.1Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Olympique Marseille would usually take 1.5 points and Rennes 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Olympique Marseille.

Olympique Marseille +1.5 pts vs chancesRennes −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Olympique Marseille vs Rennes stats: how the match was played

Coupe de France

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Olympique Marseille

Rennes

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Olympique Marseille and Rennes ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Olympique Marseille win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Olympique Marseille vs Rennes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coupe de France

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille to win

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,450 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,379 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Olympique Marseille Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Marseille 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Rennes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rennes 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Olympique Marseille vs Rennes 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Olympique Marseille vs Rennes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coupe de France - France

Olympique Marseille3

Rennes0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

· FT

Coupe de France - France

Olympique Marseille3

Rennes0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

149%

X22%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	38%	62%	51%	49%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	38%	62%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	51%	49%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	48%	52%	73%	27%	88%	12%
	35%	65%	65%	35%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	48%	52%
	35%	65%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	73%	27%	88%	12%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

139%

X38%

223%

1st Score

158%

X4%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

16%

2-2

16%

X-X

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

9.8%

2-1

9.2%

1-0

8.0%

1-2

6.8%

2-0

6.6%

2-2

6.3%

3-1

5.5%

0-1

5.3%

3-0

4.6%

0-0

4.5%

0-2

4.1%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score