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Toulouse vs Amiens SC 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Coupe de France - Season 2025/2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
ToulouseToulouse

1–0

Amiens SCAmiens SC
2.1Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Toulouse would usually take 2.5 points and Amiens SC 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Toulouse.

Toulouse +0.5 pts vs chancesAmiens SC −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Toulouse vs Amiens SC stats: how the match was played

Coupe de France

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Toulouse had more than twice the shots on target

Toulouse

Amiens SC

8

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

0

6

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

1

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Toulouse and Amiens SC ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Toulouse win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Toulouse vs Amiens SC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coupe de France

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toulouse to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,122 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Toulouse ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 2,219 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Toulouse Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Toulouse 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Toulouse 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Amiens SC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Amiens SC 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 2,578 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Toulouse vs Amiens SC 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Toulouse vs Amiens SC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Coupe de France - France
ToulouseToulouse1
Amiens SCAmiens SC0

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

154%
X25%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Toulouse20%80%51%49%
Amiens SC43%57%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Toulouse76%24%91%9%
Amiens SC94%7%98%2%

1st Half

140%
X42%
218%

1st Score

160%
X8%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

17%

X-X

14%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.0%

1-1

11.5%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

9.5%

0-0

7.5%

0-1

7.0%

1-2

5.7%

3-1

5.5%

3-0

5.4%

2-2

4.8%

0-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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