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Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce

Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ekstraklasa - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Pogoń Szczecin

2–0

Korona Kielce

0.6Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Pogoń Szczecin would usually take 0.8 points and Korona Kielce 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Pogoń Szczecin.

Pogoń Szczecin +2.2 pts vs chancesKorona Kielce −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce stats: how the match was played

Ekstraklasa

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Korona Kielce had clearly more shots on target

Pogoń Szczecin

Korona Kielce

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Pogoń Szczecin and Korona Kielce ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Pogoń Szczecin win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Katowice – Pogoń Szczecin prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ekstraklasa

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pogoń Szczecin to win

Correct

Our model 46%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,329 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Pogoń Szczecin Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pogoń Szczecin 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Korona Kielce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Korona Kielce 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,224 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ekstraklasa - Poland

Pogoń Szczecin2

Korona Kielce0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Ekstraklasa - Poland

Pogoń Szczecin2

Korona Kielce0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

145%

X26%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	55%	45%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	51%	49%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	33%	67%	65%	35%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	51%	49%
	33%	67%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

133%

X44%

223%

1st Score

151%

X6%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

18%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

2-1

9.7%

1-0

8.1%

1-2

7.2%

2-0

6.5%

2-2

6.4%

0-1

6.1%

0-0

5.9%

3-1

4.8%

3-0

3.8%

0-2

3.7%

3-2

3.5%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Pogoń Szczecin vs Korona Kielce — Recent Form

Pogoń Szczecin have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Korona Kielce have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Pogoń Szczecin

Korona Kielce

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Pogoń Szczecin

1/5

Korona Kielce

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Pogoń Szczecin

2/5

Korona Kielce

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Pogoń Szczecin

2/5

Korona Kielce

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Pogoń Szczecin

5/5

Korona Kielce

4/5

First Half Result

Pogoń Szczecin

4/5

Korona Kielce

0/5

Correct Score

Pogoń Szczecin

1/5

Korona Kielce

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Katowice – Pogoń Szczecin prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).