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AZ vs FC Volendam 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Eredivisie - Season 2025/2026 (Round 18)
AZ1–0
FC VolendamOn these chances AZ would usually take 2.3 points and FC Volendam 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: AZ.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →AZ vs FC Volendam stats: how the match was played
Eredivisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
AZ had more than twice the shots on target
AZ
FC Volendam
8
Shots on target
2
5
Big chances
1
7
Corners
2
0
Yellow cards
1
49%
Possession
51%
AZ vs FC Volendam — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
AZ to win
CorrectOur track record
In 321 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.4% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 256 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
AZ ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Our model’s pick
AZ 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
FC Volendam 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
AZ vs FC Volendam 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AZ vs FC Volendam. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
AZ1
FC Volendam0Winner
1 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
2-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
AZ1FC Volendam0Winner
1 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
2-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 70% | 30% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11% | 89% | 33% | 67% |
| 62% | 39% | 87% | 13% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 44% | 76% | 24% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
56%
X-1
17%
X-X
7%
2-1
5%
2-2
4%
1-X
3%
X-2
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
11.6%
1-0
11.5%
3-0
8.9%
2-1
8.2%
1-1
6.9%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
3.4%
3-2
3.2%
2-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score