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FC Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Smash-and-grab

Sparta Rotterdam won with less than half the chances

FC UtrechtFC Utrecht

0–1

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
2.3Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances FC Utrecht would usually take 2.5 points and Sparta Rotterdam 0.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Utrecht.

FC Utrecht −2.5 pts vs chancesSparta Rotterdam +2.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

FC Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

FC Utrecht had clearly more shots on target

FC Utrecht

Sparta Rotterdam

5

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

1

10

Corners

0

0

Yellow cards

4

57%

Possession

43%

The match between FC Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Sparta Rotterdam win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Utrecht – Willem II prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

FC Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Rotterdam to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: FC Utrecht to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 25%

Our track record

In 1,028 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,412 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 3,039 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,311 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,586 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

FC Utrecht Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Utrecht 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Sparta Rotterdam Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 968 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

FC Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
FC UtrechtFC Utrecht0
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1

Winner

X2 64%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

136%
X24%
240%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT51%49%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
FC Utrecht27%73%58%42%
Sparta Rotterdam25%75%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
FC Utrecht82%18%94%6%
Sparta Rotterdam79%21%92%8%

1st Half

129%
X41%
231%

1st Score

147%
X4%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

1-1

21%

X-2

15%

X-X

14%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.6%

1-2

8.7%

2-1

8.0%

0-1

7.3%

2-2

6.9%

1-0

6.8%

0-2

5.3%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.7%

3-1

4.3%

0-0

4.3%

2-3

3.7%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Utrecht – Willem II prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

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