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AZ vs NEC 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Fair result
AZAZ

1–3

NECNEC
1.1Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances AZ would usually take 0.8 points and NEC 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: AZ.

AZ −0.8 pts vs chancesNEC +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

AZ vs NEC stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

NEC had more than twice the shots on target

AZ

NEC

2

Shots on target

8

3

Big chances

2

3

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

2

49%

Possession

52%

The match between AZ and NEC ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a AZ win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – FC Groningen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

AZ vs NEC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AZ to win

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,720 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,341 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,401 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AZ ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,706 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

AZ Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AZ 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,302 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

AZ vs NEC 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AZ vs NEC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
AZAZ1
NECNEC3

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

149%
X24%
227%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
AZ20%80%49%51%
NEC36%64%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
AZ74%26%89%11%
NEC87%13%96%4%

1st Half

140%
X34%
225%

1st Score

158%
X5%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-X

11%

X-2

9%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

1-0

8.9%

2-1

8.8%

2-0

7.3%

1-2

6.7%

0-1

6.0%

2-2

6.0%

3-1

5.5%

0-0

5.4%

3-0

4.3%

3-2

3.8%

0-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – FC Groningen prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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