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PEC Zwolle vs Telstar 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Fair result
PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle

4–1

TelstarTelstar
2.3Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances PEC Zwolle would usually take 1.6 points and Telstar 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: PEC Zwolle.

PEC Zwolle +1.4 pts vs chancesTelstar −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

PEC Zwolle vs Telstar stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

PEC Zwolle

Telstar

9

Shots on target

8

7

Big chances

4

6

Corners

9

0

Yellow cards

0

58%

Possession

42%

The match between PEC Zwolle and Telstar ended 4-1. Our AI model predicted an Telstar win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

PEC Zwolle vs Telstar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Telstar to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: PEC Zwolle to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,061 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,709 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,165 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,969 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,670 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

PEC Zwolle Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PEC Zwolle 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Telstar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Telstar 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,590 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

PEC Zwolle vs Telstar 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for PEC Zwolle vs Telstar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle4
TelstarTelstar1

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

132%
X26%
242%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
PEC Zwolle33%67%66%34%
Telstar25%75%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
PEC Zwolle86%14%96%4%
Telstar82%18%93%7%

1st Half

123%
X41%
236%

1st Score

137%
X6%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

26%

X-X

16%

X-2

16%

1-1

15%

X-1

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

0-1

9.1%

1-2

8.7%

1-0

7.5%

2-1

7.4%

0-2

7.3%

0-0

6.3%

2-2

6.0%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.4%

0-3

3.6%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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