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PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Eredivisie - Season 2025/2026 (Round 27)
PEC Zwolle1–1
FC GroningenOn these chances PEC Zwolle would usually take 1.4 points and FC Groningen 1.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Groningen.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen stats: how the match was played
Eredivisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen
6
Shots on target
6
6
Big chances
5
7
Corners
6
0
Yellow cards
3
50%
Possession
50%
PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
PEC Zwolle to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: FC Groningen to win.
Our track record
In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,696 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
PEC Zwolle 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for PEC Zwolle vs FC Groningen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
PEC Zwolle1
FC Groningen1Winner
1X 66%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
PEC Zwolle1FC Groningen1Winner
1X 66%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 56% | 44% |
| 31% | 69% | 62% | 38% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
18%
X-X
15%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.3%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
5.3%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.6%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
3-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score