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Excelsior vs FC Utrecht 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Excelsior1–2
FC UtrechtOn these chances Excelsior would usually take 1.1 points and FC Utrecht 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Excelsior.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Excelsior vs FC Utrecht stats: how the match was played
Eredivisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Utrecht had clearly more shots on target
Excelsior
FC Utrecht
4
Shots on target
6
2
Big chances
4
5
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
0
55%
Possession
45%
Excelsior vs FC Utrecht — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Utrecht to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Excelsior to win.
Our track record
In 1,070 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,707 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,964 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Our model’s pick
Excelsior 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Excelsior 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 82 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 51.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.3% than to our 65–70%.
Our model’s pick
FC Utrecht 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,590 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Excelsior vs FC Utrecht 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Excelsior vs FC Utrecht. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Excelsior1
FC Utrecht2Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Excelsior1FC Utrecht2Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 95% | 5% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
2-2
21%
X-X
15%
X-1
13%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-0
7.0%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
4.8%
1-3
4.1%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score