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FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle 3-0 Score & Prediction Review
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
FC Groningen3–0
PEC ZwolleOn these chances FC Groningen would usually take 2.2 points and PEC Zwolle 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Groningen.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle stats: how the match was played
Eredivisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Groningen had more than twice the shots on target
FC Groningen
PEC Zwolle
7
Shots on target
1
2
Big chances
0
5
Corners
6
0
Yellow cards
2
53%
Possession
48%
FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,457 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 123 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.3% than to our 65–70%.
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
FC Groningen 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
PEC Zwolle 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,580 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
FC Groningen3
PEC Zwolle0Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
FC Groningen3PEC Zwolle0Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 48% | 52% |
| 44% | 56% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26% | 89% | 11% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
37%
X-1
18%
X-X
12%
2-2
11%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
11.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
7.4%
0-1
6.3%
3-1
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-0
5.2%
3-2
3.1%
0-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score