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Ajax vs Excelsior

Ajax vs Excelsior 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Robbed

Ajax drew despite more chances

Ajax

2–2

Excelsior

2.9Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Ajax would usually take 2.7 points and Excelsior 0.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Ajax.

Ajax −1.7 pts vs chancesExcelsior +0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ajax vs Excelsior stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ajax had more than twice the shots on target

Ajax

Excelsior

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

81%

Possession

19%

The match between Ajax and Excelsior ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Ajax win at 60% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Groningen – Ajax prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Ajax vs Excelsior — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ajax to win

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ajax ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Ajax Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ajax 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Excelsior Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ajax vs Excelsior 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ajax vs Excelsior. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

Ajax2

Excelsior2

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

Ajax2

Excelsior2

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

160%

X21%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%	48%	52%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	48%	52%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	39%	61%	64%	36%	83%	17%
	43%	57%	72%	28%	91%	9%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	39%	61%
	43%	57%	72%	28%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	64%	36%	83%	17%
	91%	9%	97%	3%

1st Half

150%

X33%

217%

1st Score

170%

X4%

226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

42%

X-1

16%

X-X

10%

2-2

10%

1-X

X-2

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

9.7%

1-1

9.3%

1-0

8.3%

2-0

8.1%

3-1

6.4%

2-2

6.1%

3-0

6.0%

1-2

5.2%

3-2

4.8%

0-1

3.9%

0-0

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Ajax vs Excelsior — Recent Form

Ajax have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Excelsior have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Ajax

Excelsior

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Ajax

2/5

Excelsior

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Ajax

5/5

Excelsior

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Ajax

4/5

Excelsior

5/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Ajax

1/5

Excelsior

1/5

First Half Result

Ajax

2/5

Excelsior

2/5

Correct Score

Ajax

0/5

Excelsior

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Groningen – Ajax prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).