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FC Utrecht vs Willem II

FC Utrecht vs Willem II 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result

FC Utrecht

3–1

Willem II

2.1Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances FC Utrecht would usually take 2.3 points and Willem II 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Utrecht.

FC Utrecht +0.7 pts vs chancesWillem II −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

FC Utrecht vs Willem II stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

FC Utrecht had more than twice the shots on target

FC Utrecht

Willem II

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between FC Utrecht and Willem II ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a FC Utrecht win with 53% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

FC Utrecht vs Willem II — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Utrecht to win

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Utrecht ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 38%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

FC Utrecht Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FC Utrecht 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Willem II Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Willem II 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,349 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

FC Utrecht vs Willem II 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Utrecht vs Willem II. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

FC Utrecht3

Willem II1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

FC Utrecht3

Willem II1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

153%

X24%

223%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	56%	44%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	56%	44%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	48%	52%	73%	27%	89%	11%
	41%	59%	72%	28%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	48%	52%
	41%	59%	72%	28%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	73%	27%	89%	11%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

138%

X36%

226%

1st Score

154%

X6%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

2-2

16%

X-1

13%

X-X

12%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.9%

1-0

9.9%

2-1

9.6%

2-0

8.3%

1-2

6.3%

0-0

6.0%

0-1

5.7%

3-1

5.7%

2-2

5.6%

3-0

5.3%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

FC Utrecht vs Willem II — Recent Form

FC Utrecht have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. Willem II have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.

Last 5 matches

FC Utrecht

Willem II

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Willem II

3/5

FC Utrecht

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Willem II

3/5

FC Utrecht

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Willem II

3/5

FC Utrecht

5/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Willem II

2/5

FC Utrecht

2/5

First Half Result

Willem II

3/5

FC Utrecht

2/5

Correct Score

Willem II

0/5

FC Utrecht

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).