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SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior

SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)

Fair result

SC Heerenveen

4–0

Excelsior

2.5Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances SC Heerenveen would usually take 2.6 points and Excelsior 0.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: SC Heerenveen.

SC Heerenveen +0.4 pts vs chancesExcelsior −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

SC Heerenveen had more than twice the shots on target

SC Heerenveen

Excelsior

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

51%

Possession

49%

The match between SC Heerenveen and Excelsior ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a SC Heerenveen win with 48% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: SC Heerenveen – NEC prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SC Heerenveen to win

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,498 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,402 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SC Heerenveen ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 40%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 6,636 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

SC Heerenveen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SC Heerenveen 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,798 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Excelsior Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,289 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

SC Heerenveen4

Excelsior0

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Eredivisie - Netherlands

SC Heerenveen4

Excelsior0

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

148%

X24%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%	52%	48%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	50%	50%	74%	26%	89%	11%
	36%	64%	66%	34%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	50%	50%
	36%	64%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	74%	26%	89%	11%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

140%

X34%

226%

1st Score

156%

X6%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

2-2

17%

X-1

13%

X-X

11%

X-2

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.5%

2-1

9.0%

1-0

8.4%

1-2

6.8%

2-0

6.8%

0-1

6.1%

2-2

5.9%

0-0

5.5%

3-1

5.0%

3-0

4.2%

3-2

3.7%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior — Recent Form

SC Heerenveen have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Excelsior have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.

Last 5 matches

SC Heerenveen

Excelsior

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

SC Heerenveen

2/5

Excelsior

2/5

Both Teams to Score

SC Heerenveen

1/5

Excelsior

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

SC Heerenveen

3/5

Excelsior

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

SC Heerenveen

2/5

Excelsior

2/5

First Half Result

SC Heerenveen

2/5

Excelsior

2/5

Correct Score

SC Heerenveen

0/5

Excelsior

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: SC Heerenveen – NEC prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).