Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Lech Poznań to win
Our track record
In 1,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 2,364 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,006 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 881 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 60.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 1,152 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.0% of the time (bookmakers said 35.2%).
Our model’s pick
Lech Poznań 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,713 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.2% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lech Poznań–
Bayer 04 Leverkusen–Winner
1X 62%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Lech Poznań–Bayer 04 Leverkusen–Winner
1X 62%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 49% | 51% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26% | 74% | 54% | 46% |
 | 27% | 73% | 56% | 44% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
| 80% | 20% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
2-2
22%
X-1
13%
X-X
12%
X-2
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
1-0
6.2%
2-0
4.9%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
1-3
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
3-0
3.4%
2-3
3.3%
0-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Lech PoznańBayer 04 LeverkusenBoth Teams to Score
Lech PoznańBayer 04 LeverkusenOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Lech PoznańBayer 04 LeverkusenOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Lech PoznańBayer 04 LeverkusenFirst Half Result
Lech PoznańBayer 04 LeverkusenCorrect Score
Lech PoznańBayer 04 Leverkusen