Fast starters
7/10AEL scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
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AEL vs Aris Limassol Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
1. Division - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Unlucky
Aris Limassol are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−6points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 7 with xG
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. AEL are the other way round, ahead of their chances: about +5 points.
Bookmakers: Aris Limassol 45% to winAEL 29%
AEL vs Aris Limassol score prediction
1. Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.8 goals in total, a little over the 1. Division average of 2.7.
goals expected
AEL1.4
Aris Limassol1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for AEL vs Aris Limassol: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
AEL vs Aris Limassol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 1. Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Aris Limassol to win
Our model 41%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 3,628 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,734 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
AEL Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
AEL 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Aris Limassol Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Aris Limassol 0–1 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 643 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
AEL vs Aris Limassol — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for AEL vs Aris Limassol. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
AEL–
Aris Limassol–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
AEL–Aris Limassol–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
132%
X27%
241%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 65% | 35% |
| 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
127%
X42%
231%
1st Score
143%
X7%
250%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
22%
1-1
18%
X-X
16%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.1%
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-0
7.0%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
2-0
5.0%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
AEL vs Aris Limassol: the stats that stand out
1. Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%AEL: fast starters
7/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →AEL vs Aris Limassol: attack vs defence
1. Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other 1. Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- AEL: weak attack, good defence (1.32 xG, 1.20 xGA a game)
- Aris Limassol: good attack, good defence (1.85 xG, 1.06 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →AEL vs Aris Limassol form and luck check
1. Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 1. Division gamesAEL riding their luck, Aris Limassol unlucky
- AELBookmakers: 29% to win today. · 8 of 10 games+4.5
- Aris LimassolBookmakers: 45% to win today. · 7 of 10 gamesWasteful · −5 goals−5.7
Last 5 matches
AELW
W
W
W
L
Aris LimassolD
W
D
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: AEL 7th of 14 · Aris Limassol 4th of 14
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 14 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →AEL vs Aris Limassol: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
1. Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 1. Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in AEL and Aris Limassol games more often than the 1. Division average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
AEL5 of 10
Aris Limassol5 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
AEL5 of 10
Aris Limassol6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 235 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →AEL vs Aris Limassol corners, cards and goal times
1. Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the 1. Division average
AEL
Aris Limassol
3.3
Corners won · league 4.6
5.8
5.6
Corners conceded · league 4.6
3.4
2.5
Cards · league 2.4
3.0
2.6
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.8
29%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
23%
21%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
31%
43%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
41%
29%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
12%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Aris Limassol3/5
AEL2/5
Both Teams to Score
Aris Limassol3/5
AEL2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Aris Limassol3/5
AEL3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Aris Limassol4/5
AEL4/5
First Half Result
Aris Limassol2/5
AEL2/5
Correct Score
Aris Limassol1/5
AEL0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction