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Apollon vs AEL 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
1. Division - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)
Apollon2–1
AELOn these chances Apollon would usually take 2.1 points and AEL 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Apollon.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Apollon vs AEL stats: how the match was played
1. Division
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Apollon had more than twice the shots on target
Apollon
AEL
5
Shots on target
2
0
Big chances
2
9
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
3
62%
Possession
38%
Apollon vs AEL — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 1. Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Apollon to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,793 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Apollon ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,223 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Apollon 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
AEL 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Apollon vs AEL 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Apollon vs AEL. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Apollon2
AEL1Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Apollon2AEL1Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 48% | 52% |
| 46% | 54% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
34%
X-1
18%
X-X
15%
2-2
11%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
12.8%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
10.8%
2-0
10.5%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
4.8%
2-2
4.5%
3-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score