Aris Limassol vs APOEL 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
1. Division - Season 2025/2026 (Round 7)
Aris Limassol1–0
APOELOn these chances Aris Limassol would usually take 1.6 points and APOEL 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Aris Limassol.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Aris Limassol vs APOEL stats: how the match was played
1. Division
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Aris Limassol had clearly more shots on target
Aris Limassol
APOEL
6
Shots on target
4
0
Big chances
1
8
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
1
52%
Possession
48%
Aris Limassol vs APOEL — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 1. Division
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Aris Limassol to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,534 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 5,563 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,212 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,885 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 1,988 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Aris Limassol 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,751 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
APOEL 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,210 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Aris Limassol vs APOEL 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Aris Limassol vs APOEL. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Aris Limassol1
APOEL0Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Aris Limassol1APOEL0Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 46% |
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 92% | 8% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
16%
2-2
15%
X-X
13%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
7.6%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score