Hard to break
1/10Varaždin conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
1. HNL - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Hard to break
Varaždin conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 46%).
1/10Conceded first · Varaždin
Bookmakers: Varaždin 43% to winLokomotiva Zagreb 29%
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin score prediction
1. HNL
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the 1. HNL average of 2.8.
goals expected
Lokomotiva Zagreb1.2Varaždin1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 1. HNL
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Varaždin to win
Our model 45%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 3,370 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 5,016 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,821 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 6,500 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Lokomotiva Zagreb Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Varaždin Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Varaždin 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 958 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lokomotiva Zagreb–
Varaždin–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Lokomotiva Zagreb–Varaždin–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
127%
X28%
245%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 69% | 31% |
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 79% | 21% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
124%
X44%
233%
1st Score
140%
X8%
252%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
25%
X-X
19%
1-1
16%
X-2
15%
X-1
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
9.4%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
7.0%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
4.6%
0-3
4.1%
2-0
3.8%
2-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: the stats that stand out
1. HNL
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Varaždin: hard to break and brick wall
1/10Brick wall
6/10Varaždin kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: attack vs defence
1. HNL
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other 1. HNL teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Lokomotiva Zagreb: weak attack, weak defence (1.05 xG, 1.92 xGA a game)
- Varaždin: good attack, good defence (1.67 xG, 1.13 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin form and luck check
1. HNL
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 1. HNL gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Lokomotiva ZagrebBookmakers: 29% to win today.+1.6
- VaraždinBookmakers: 43% to win today.+3.2
Last 5 matches
VaraždinD
D
D
W
L
Lokomotiva ZagrebL
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Lokomotiva Zagreb 9th of 10 · Varaždin 4th of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 10 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
1. HNL
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 1. HNL gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Lokomotiva Zagreb games more often than the 1. HNL average (52%), in Varaždin games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 51%
Lokomotiva Zagreb5 of 10
Varaždin4 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Lokomotiva Zagreb7 of 10
Varaždin4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 174 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin corners, cards and goal times
1. HNL
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the 1. HNL average
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
4.4
Corners won · league 4.7
4.2
6.0
Corners conceded · league 4.7
4.4
2.7
Cards · league 2.1
1.6
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
2.1
58%
Goals before half-time · league 48%
53%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 20%
24%
35%
Conceded before half-time · league 48%
0%
6%
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
29%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Lokomotiva Zagreb3/5
Varaždin2/5
Both Teams to Score
Lokomotiva Zagreb3/5
Varaždin1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Lokomotiva Zagreb4/5
Varaždin4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Lokomotiva Zagreb3/5
Varaždin3/5
First Half Result
Lokomotiva Zagreb5/5
Varaždin4/5
Correct Score
Lokomotiva Zagreb1/5
Varaždin0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction