Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Indian Super League - Season 2025/2026 (Round 12)
Minerva Punjab1–0
ChennaiyinOn these chances Minerva Punjab would usually take 1.7 points and Chennaiyin 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Minerva Punjab.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin stats: how the match was played
Indian Super League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Minerva Punjab had more than twice the shots on target
Minerva Punjab
Chennaiyin
3
Shots on target
1
0
Big chances
1
7
Corners
4
1
Yellow cards
1
58%
Possession
43%
Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Indian Super League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Minerva Punjab to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,407 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,123 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Minerva Punjab ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,182 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Minerva Punjab 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Minerva Punjab 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Chennaiyin 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,324 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Minerva Punjab vs Chennaiyin. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Minerva Punjab1
Chennaiyin0Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Minerva Punjab1Chennaiyin0Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 52% | 48% |
| 40% | 60% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
17%
X-X
15%
2-2
13%
X-2
9%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.8%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.9%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score