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Gwangju vs Ulsan HD

Gwangju vs Ulsan 4-3 Score & Prediction Review

K-League 1 - Season 2026 (Round 31)

Gwangju vs Ulsan stats: how the match was played

K-League 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Gwangju

Ulsan

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between Gwangju and Ulsan ended 4-3. Our AI model predicted an Ulsan win at 57% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

Gwangju vs Ulsan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · K-League 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ulsan to win

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,811 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,860 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 73%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Ulsan ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,245 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Gwangju Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gwangju 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 79%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Ulsan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ulsan 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gwangju vs Ulsan 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gwangju vs Ulsan. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

K-League 1 - South Korea

Gwangju4

Ulsan3

Winner

2 57%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

K-League 1 - South Korea

Gwangju4

Ulsan3

Winner

2 57%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

119%

X25%

257%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	46%	54%	79%	21%	95%	5%	99%	1%
	19%	81%	49%	51%	75%	25%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	46%	54%	79%	21%
	19%	81%	49%	51%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	95%	5%	99%	1%
	75%	25%	91%	9%

1st Half

118%

X43%

238%

1st Score

133%

X8%

260%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

X-2

19%

X-X

17%

1-1

10%

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

12.5%

1-1

11.6%

0-2

10.5%

1-2

9.7%

0-0

7.7%

1-0

6.4%

0-3

6.3%

1-3

5.8%

2-1

4.9%

2-2

4.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Gwangju vs Ulsan — Recent Form

Gwangju have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table. Ulsan have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table.

Last 5 matches

Gwangju

Ulsan

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Gwangju

1/5

Ulsan

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Gwangju

2/5

Ulsan

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gwangju

3/5

Ulsan

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Gwangju

2/5

Ulsan

3/5

First Half Result

Gwangju

3/5

Ulsan

2/5

Correct Score

Gwangju

0/5

Ulsan

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction