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Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

KNVB Beker - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag stats: how the match was played

KNVB Beker

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

ADO Den Haag created more than twice the chances

Excelsior '31

ADO Den Haag

1.0

Chances (xG)

3.3

4

Shots on target

7

0

Big chances

3

4

Corners

18

2

Yellow cards

2

28%

Possession

73%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →
The match between Excelsior '31 and ADO Den Haag ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an ADO Den Haag win at 63% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · KNVB Beker

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

ADO Den Haag to win

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 82%

Our track record

In 1,067 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 71%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 297 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 194 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.3% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

ADO Den Haag ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 4,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Excelsior '31 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior '31 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).

ADO Den Haag Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
KNVB Beker - Netherlands
Excelsior '31Excelsior '311
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1

Winner

2 63%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-2 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 71%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 59%

Full Time

120%
X17%
263%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT12%88%29%71%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT41%59%63%37%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Excelsior '3148%52%73%27%
ADO Den Haag14%86%34%66%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Excelsior '3189%11%96%4%
ADO Den Haag57%43%74%26%

1st Half

119%
X32%
249%

1st Score

129%
X3%
268%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

44%

X-2

14%

1-1

12%

X-X

9%

X-1

7%

1-X

4%

1-2

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-2

9.1%

1-1

7.6%

0-2

7.0%

0-3

6.4%

0-1

5.8%

1-3

5.3%

2-2

5.1%

2-1

4.9%

2-3

4.0%

1-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
0/1
Excelsior '31Excelsior '31
1/3

Both Teams to Score

ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
1/1
Excelsior '31Excelsior '31
2/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
0/1
Excelsior '31Excelsior '31
1/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
1/1
Excelsior '31Excelsior '31
2/3

First Half Result

ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
0/1
Excelsior '31Excelsior '31
2/3

Correct Score

ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
0/1
Excelsior '31Excelsior '31
0/3
correct predictionwrong prediction

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