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MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

KNVB Beker - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

MVV Maastricht

0–3

Excelsior

1.6Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances MVV Maastricht would usually take 1.2 points and Excelsior 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Excelsior.

MVV Maastricht −1.2 pts vs chancesExcelsior +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior stats: how the match was played

KNVB Beker

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

MVV Maastricht

Excelsior

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

59%

Possession

41%

The match between MVV Maastricht and Excelsior ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Excelsior win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · KNVB Beker

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior to win

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,508 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,106 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 949 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 38%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 1,982 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.5% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

MVV Maastricht Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MVV Maastricht 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Excelsior Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

KNVB Beker - Netherlands

MVV Maastricht0

Excelsior3

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

· FT

KNVB Beker - Netherlands

MVV Maastricht0

Excelsior3

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 53%

Full Time

130%

X21%

249%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	36%	64%	47%	53%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	36%	64%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	47%	53%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	35%	65%	63%	37%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	21%	79%	47%	53%	72%	28%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	35%	65%	63%	37%
	21%	79%	47%	53%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	72%	28%	86%	14%

1st Half

127%

X35%

238%

1st Score

140%

X4%

256%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

1-1

18%

X-2

15%

X-X

11%

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

8.8%

1-2

8.4%

0-1

7.4%

0-2

6.8%

2-1

6.4%

2-2

6.2%

1-0

5.5%

1-3

5.3%

0-0

4.0%

2-0

3.8%

2-3

3.7%

0-3

3.6%

3-1

3.6%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Excelsior

1/1

MVV Maastricht

1/1

Both Teams to Score

Excelsior

0/1

MVV Maastricht

0/1

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Excelsior

1/1

MVV Maastricht

1/1

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Excelsior

1/1

MVV Maastricht

1/1

First Half Result

Excelsior

1/1

MVV Maastricht

1/1

Correct Score

Excelsior

0/1

MVV Maastricht

0/1

correct predictionwrong prediction